Japan 9 earthquake of the world steel market earthquake effect: ore demand decline
The latest xinhua net Shanghai March 14 report (reporter LiRong) all of a sudden earthquake in Japan, may affect local Japanese millions of tons of steel production. According to domestic famous steel information institutions "My steel" 14 provides the newest appraisal report, the effects of the earthquake will firstly embodies steel materials for iron ore demand fell, while Japan exports of steel "gaps, Asia will be part of the supply and demand balance steel varieties short term will be broken. Since then, Japan post-disaster reconstruction could drive Asian building steel production.
"My steel" analysts say Japan northeast and by great kanto region quake worst affected. These two areas are focused on the Japanese industrial centres and steel, automobiles, petrochemical and other backbone industry. Japan as the world's second largest steel producer and exporter, and suffered the biggest steel to international steel earthquake will market has greater effect. According to the analysis, the earthquake affected Japan directly about 2,600 tons three steel crude steel production, the influence of the biggest steel plates and varieties of plate is mainly used in cars and shipbuilding; Followed by wire, used primarily in the automobile and construction; Stainless steel, profiles and steel pipe by the capacity also certain effect. The engineering appraiser has metallurgical aspects, said if steel blast furnace and converter accident, maintenance need time longer, may need six to 10 months, if reconstruction, need a few years. In addition, the foundation if changes occurred in the mill, readjusted also need quite a long time. Some analysts preliminary judgment is that affected steel production need at least 6 months, each month if reduce 2.5 million tons of steel production, the cumulative or at least 15 million ton to cut output.
"My steel" analysts say Japan steel output volatility, will directly reflected in material requirements, estimate that over the next six months, iron ore demand would reduce 350 tons per month, coke reducing 1.7million tons. "The international spot iron ore market is in decline channel, earthquake will make falling speed, drop will also beyond early market forecast. Japanese steel imports is low, the influence of peripheral market almost negligible, but its steel exports, is the first. According to relevant personage analysis, the Japanese exports in 2010, accounting for approximately 4340 tons of steel 45% of its production, its main exports to South Korea, China and other parts of Asia are mainly for export hot coil, galvanized steel sheet, cold roll, plate, welded pipe, electrician steel and stainless steel, these steel is mainly used in automobiles, home appliances and shipbuilding industries. The main quake influence for sheet and productivity of the plate in the next six months, is expected to Japanese sheet and medium thickness plate exports dropped noticeably in Asia, "the two varieties of supply and demand balance will temporarily being broken," market prices may therefore go up. In addition, Japanese post-disaster reconstruction will unfold gradually would lead to Asian countries building steel exports.
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