China has not yet felt Indonesia nickel and aluminium export ban shock effect

Indonesia has not yet released trade data for February, but January report has shown ore exports were down 70.1% in December, enough to make the country's trade balance to after three months after the surplus deficit.

In theory, China March trade data should display the number of nickel ore and bauxite from Indonesia imports is zero, because any cargo could not tarry six weeks at sea road.

The number of imported ore from Indonesia assuming indeed to near zero, so need to consider the question is: what will happen next?

* * * * China inventory can not meet the demand for a long time

On bauxite, believed to China buyers have reserves of nearly 18 months of consumption, this last year imports jumped 79% cases.

But the bauxite inventory one day down to low, the supply source material when the options on the market will be very limited, so China may have to move up the value chain of upstream, increased imports of alumina.

Given the global alumina and aluminum market is still in a great situation of excess supply, so we need to wait until after a period of time can feel the influence of Indonesia bauxite supply deficiency.

In addition, if the alumina refinery built in Indonesia, may never feel bauxite supply reduction. Indonesia bans political objective is to establish the alumina refinery in the local.

Perhaps this scene will on other areas of alumina and aluminium producers to cause some impact, but overall, effect of Indonesia bauxite export bans on the market but also is simmered in suffering, fermentation co..

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