Jaway Stainless Steel

Forecast on China's Auto Steel Production in 2011-2015

China's auto industry has consumed about 33 million tonnes of steel products in 2009. Vehicle manufacturing used 25 million tonnes, taking up 76 percent of the toal; automive parts exports chewed up 2.50 million tonnes, accounting for 7.5 percent; car maintenance consumed 5.50 million tonnes, holding 16.5 percent.

Auto consumption will keep a steady growth as Chinese economy will perform fairly good in 2011-2015. China's GDP is expected to grow at an annual rate of 8.1 percent or 8.9 percent during the 12th five-year period. Given that China's GDP totaled CNY34 trillion in 2009, it will run up to CNY54.4 trillion or CNY56 trillion in 2015. GDP per capita will reach US$5800 or US$5900 supposing that China has a population of CNY1.4 billion at that time. Therefore, China will embrace a auto consumption boom then.

Chinese-made car will have a larger share in world market in 2011-2015. China's auto exports will reach 2-3 million units in 2015. China will be dedicated to new energy vehicle production in the 12th five-year period. Some analyst expect that China's new energy vehicle sales will come to 1 million units in 2015.

For a variety of reasons, there are two scenarios for China's automobile production in 2015.

 

Annual sales growth%

Exports (million units)

production(million units)

Scenario I

10

200

3000

Scenario II

12

300

3300

China's auto parts exports will grow at an annual rate of more than 8 percent in 2011-2015 and the exports value will surpass CNY55 billion by 2015, up 60 percent compared with 2010. The number of registered cars in the country will reach 160-170 million units till 2015 if auto sales consumption grow at an annual rate of 10 percent or 12 percent in the 12th five-year period.

Steel consumption of China's auto industry in 2015

Scenario I: China's auto industry will consume 60 million tonnes of steel products given auto production hit 30 million units.

Steel products

Consumption (million tonnes)

Proportion in the total (%)

Total

60

100

Flats

35

58.3

Longs

19.75

32.9

Pipes

2.75

4.6

Others

2.5

4.2

Scenario II: China's auto industry will consume 64 million tonnes of steel products given auto production hit 33 million units.

Steel products

Consumption (million tonnes)

Proportion in the total (%)

Total

64

100

Flats

37.4

58.4

Longs

21.05

32.9

Pipes

2.85

4.5

Others

2.7

4.2